THE DEBATE

Posted at 6:50 a.m. ET

I'll agree with the conventional wisdom that last night's debate was a draw, which means, in practical terms, a victory for Obama.  McCain needed to turn the race around, and either couldn't find the chance to do it, or lacked the rhetorical talent to do it.  I think Paul Mirengoff is right, at Power Line, when he says that Obama moved closer to the presidency.

But the race isn't over, not by any means.  The polls are dividing into two camps - those showing Obama with a large lead, and those showing him with a small one.  We should get some refinement of those results by the time of the final debate, a week from tonight.

The fact is that debates rarely change much.  People often see what they want to see, and look for things that reinforce their views.  But McCain does need a magic moment, or event, to get past his lackluster debate performances and the press bias, which will make it increasingly difficult for him to get his message out.  His campaign is poorly organized.  He proposed a government mortgage buyout scheme last night, and failed to alert, in advance, even his best surrogates.  Mitt Romney appeared on the air after the debate and announced that the plan was news to him.  That is terrible planning.

An influential opinion analyst told me a few nights ago that, while he hears from the Obama campaign all the time, he rarely hears from the McCain campaign.  More bad planning.

I've suggested that McCain and Palin go on a whistlestop across the country together, and put on a real show.  Invite voters onto the train.  Do a Truman.  But do something to counter the image of a tired campaign that doesn't do much to enhance the impact of its star, Sarah Palin. 

The McCain campaign's final push must hit this message:  Obama isn't ready, you don't know the real man, McCain is tested, reliable and wise.  It must also take on the sensitive race issue, denouncing immediately attempts to rap McCain or Palin as racists because they dare criticize The One.  McCain might give a speech devoted to this one item.  It will draw voter attention to the irresponsible use of the race card, which is likely to increase.

And McCain must hit the economy.  He actually won on that issue last night.  He must repeat constantly the theme that Obama will make matters worse. 

Chances are the race will tighten, if McCain campaigns vigorously.  There may be an October surprise.  You don't give up until the votes are counted, and then you ask for a recount.

October 8, 2008.